Market Caution Into Fed Rate Cut?

The stock market may trade cautiously this week as it shifts to focusing on prospects for Fed monetary policy after a 25 BP cut on Wednesday.  While the evidence suggests the Fed should keep the door open for more rate cuts in 2026, officials may want to present that possibility as not a certainty.  This could result in some market volatility after the meeting, but would not rule out a year-end rally -- particularly if the November Employment Report (due December 16) or November CPI (due December 18) is benign.

A 25 BP cut at this week's FOMC Meeting will not be a surprise.  What may be more important for the market is the extent of dissent among members.  A positive surprise -- and one that should not be ruled out -- would be if there were only a few no votes, as in October (2 dissents, one of which was for a half point cut).   Another positive surprise would be if Powell does not downplay the likelihood of further rate cuts in 2026, in contrast to the cautious tone he took at the October post-meeting news conference.  If he sticks to the standard Fed line that policy will depend on the evolving economic evidence, the market may find his comments a relief.

The updated Central Tendency Forecasts will be important, as well.  In September, they showed another two 25 BP rate cuts in 2026 (see table).  The market will be looking to see if this forecast remains.  Currently, the Fed funds rate is 3.75-4.0%.

As for the Central Tendency's Economic Forecasts (see table), the most important may be for inflation.  In September, the y/y's for the PCE Deflator and Core PCE Deflator were both 2.8%.  This is still above the Fed's 2% inflation target, but below the 2025 Fed forecasts.  Total and Core need to rise by less than 0.2% m/m over Q425 for their y/y's to end the year below 2.8%.  Nevertheless, the risk is for the Central Tendency Inflation Forecasts to be revised down for 2025 and possibly 2026.  The latter would be a market positive.

Note that the latest University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey shows a decline in longer-term inflation expectations to 3.2% in early December from 3.4% in November.  These 5-year expectations are now back down to their range before the advent of tariffs (2.8-3.2%).  This is good news for the Fed.

Regarding the other Central Tendency components, the risk is for the Real GDP Growth forecast to be revised up.  Using the Atlanta Fed Model's 3.5% for Q325, Q425 Real GDP Growth would have to stall at +0.2% in Q425 to get to the 1.7% Q4/Q4 forecast.  Such a sharp slowdown would likely be accompanied by higher Unemployment, which in September was 4.4%.  So, the Q425 Forecast for the Unemployment Rate would likely be unchanged (if the Real GDP Forecast is upped) or be raised (if the Real GDP Forecast stays near 1.7%).  

                                               September Central Tendency Forecasts

                            (Q4/Q4 percent change, except for Unemployment Rate and Fed Funds Rate) 

                                                2025        2026              

Real GDP Growth                1.4-1.7        1.7-2.1

PCE Deflator                        2.9-3.0        2.4-2.7      

Core PCE Deflator                3.0-3.2        2.5-2.7    

Unemployment Rate  *         4.4-4.5         4.4-4.5   

Fed Funds Rate    *               3.6-4.1         2.9-3.6    

*  Q4 level, percent    

The latest evidence on the labor market continues to be mixed.  The ADP Estimate has Private Payrolls falling in November after speeding up in October.  In contrast, the Unemployment Claims data suggest the opposite, with October Payrolls weakening and then rebounding somewhat in November.  Continuing Claims have done a better job than the ADP Estimate in tracking speedups/slowdowns in Private Payrolls (see first table below).  A caveat is that Continuing Claims data have experienced unusually large revisions in the past two weeks, so their reliability in the latest week is a question.  Challenger Layoff Announcements,  presumably a precursor of layoffs and Unemployment Claims, were up on a y/y basis in November but substantially lower than in October (71k versus 153k).  The latter suggests that weakness in job growth is not snowballing.  The bottom line may be that the November Employment Report, due December 16, will show a sluggish trend in job growth -- which would justify the 25 BP rate cut and keep the door open for more cuts next year.

The delayed Q325 Employment Cost Index (ECI) will not likely influence this week's FOMC decision,  as it will be released on the morning of the Meeting's second day.  Evidence from Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) suggests the ECI will print at or near its 0.9% q/q trend (see second table below).  If so, the ECI would not change the risks in the inflation outlook.  A market-positive surprise would be if it prints 0.8% or less. 

With wage inflation in check, a benign November CPI cannot be ruled out, particularly if Owners' Equivalent Rent stays low, as it did in September (latest report).  The question will be whether more of the tariffs have been passed through to the consumer. 

                                        Private Payrolls (m/m change, 000s)   

                        ADP Estimate        First-Print BLS        Latest-Print BLS    Continuing Claims *        

    March               155                          209                            120

    April                   62                          167                            133                               14                            

    May                    37                          140                              69                              -74           

    Jun                    -33                            74                             -27                              -57                              

    Jul                    104                            83                               77                               18   

   Aug                     54                            38                               -4                                 2                            

   Sep                    -32                           119                                na                             28 

   Oct                     42                             na                                na                              -41 

   Nov                   -32                            na                                                                   14

 * the inverted change in Continuing Claims between Payroll Survey Weeks, 000s

                             Wage Inflation Measures

                                (q/q percent change)

                            AHE                            ECI 

Q325                1.0                            na

Q225                0.8                            0.9                 

Q125                1.0                            0.9

Q424                1.0                           0.9                                                

Q324                0.9                           0.8    

Q224                1.0                           0.9                     

Q124                1.0                           1.0

 

 

 

Market Recovery Continuing?

The stock may continue to recover this week, as most expect a rate cut at the following week's FOMC Meeting (December 9-10).  Prospects of Fed easing next year may remain a market positive even if the Fed does cut rates in the following week, based on the implications of AI.  

The labor market overall still looks soft and supportive of a Fed rate cut, even though the evidence is somewhat mixed with regard to November Payrolls.   On the weak side are the ADP Bi-Weekly Estimate and the jobs components of the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey.  The former showed a 13.5k drop in jobs over the latest 4 weeks and the latter a decline in the "jobs plentiful/hard to get" spread in November.  On the stronger side were the Unemployment Claims data.  Initial Claims fell since the October Payroll Survey Week, after rising sharply between September and October.  They suggest the pace of layoffs has fallen.  Even with fewer layoffs, Continuing Claims continued to climb, suggesting still subdued hiring.   Nevertheless, since the November Survey Week, the increase in Continuing was smaller than that between the October and November Survey Weeks.  So, the net drag of layoffs and rehires was smaller in November than October.   As a result, the Claims data point to a weak October Payroll print followed by some rebound in the November Payrolls.  Both months' prints should be in the November Employment Report, due December 16, after the FOMC Meeting.

The latest inflation data, including last week's October PPI, don't stand in the way of a Fed rate cut.  The underlying Core PPI Less Trade Services slowed for the second month in a row to a low 0.1% m/m in October.  The slowdown was broad-based among the components.  It suggests that most US domestic producers are not raising prices to take advantage of higher-priced imports.  Consensus looks for a moderate September PCE Deflator, released this coming Friday.  Total is seen at +0.3% m/m and Core at +0.2%.  The y/y for Core is seen steady at 2.9%.  The risk is for it to edge down to 2.8% because of rounding.

The soft labor market and moderation in inflation could reflect in part the impact of AI.  What's going on is essentially a substitution of capital for labor.  The substitution could help hold down inflation two ways.  The increased unemployment should hold down wage inflation.  And, the lower cost of production should be passed through to consumer prices.  This process will likely continue next year -- unless AI is held back by government regulations.  In addition, the boost from tariffs should abate, according to the Fed's best guess.  So, with downward pressure on the labor market and inflation from AI and a fading impact of tariffs, the Fed may cut rates more in 2026 -- as the Fed's September Central Tendency Forecasts already project.   The big issue could become the need to boost demand for goods and services in the face of higher unemployment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Market Recovery?

The stock market may begin to recover this Thanksgiving week, a week in which stocks historically tend to move up.  Moreover, the macroeconomic data keep open the door for a December Fed rate cut.  And, even if the Fed decides to keep policy steady at the upcoming FOMC Meeting, the macro evidence has positive implications for corporate profits.  So, a year-end rally can't be ruled out.

The September Employment Report does not rule out a December rate cut.  Although job growth was strong, other parts of the Report were soft.  Moreover, Unemployment Claims point to renewed softening in jobs in October and possibly November.  

The +119k m/m increase in Nonfarm Payrolls in September may better reflect the unevenness of m/m job gains than a solid increase in demand for labor.  It follows a downward-revised -4k in August (was +22k), so the 2-month average is 58k, in line with the +55k m/m Q225 average.   (The m/m average was +111k in Q125).  The trend in job growth remains modest and below the pace needed to keep the Unemployment Rate steady (115k).  Indeed, the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%, a new high for the move up.  Soft demand for labor also is reflected in the flat Nonfarm Workweek at a low 34.2 Hours level.  It was 34.3 Hours in July.

Although Total Hours Worked edged up 0.1% m/m in September, the Q325 average is 0.3% (annualized) below the Q225 average.  This is after they rose 1.5% (q/q, saar) in Q225.  If the Atlanta Fed Model’s 4.2% estimate of Q325 Real GDP Growth is right, it looks like Productivity Growth was strong that quarter — good for corporate profits and for holding down inflation.

The 0.2% m/m increase in Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)  also is good news for the inflation fight.  But, it probably just reflects volatility after an upward-revised +0.4% m/m in August (was +0.3%).  The Q325 average of AHE is +0.30% m/m.  Although slightly above the +0.27% in Q225, it is consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target, taking account of productivity growth.

The Claims data point to weaker Payroll gains in October and possibly November.  Continuing Claims rose by 31k between the September and October Payroll Survey Weeks and are up another 17k since then (with one more week to go to get the November Payroll Survey Week). Note that the November Employment Report is scheduled for release on December 16 — which is after the December 9-10 FOMC  Meeting 

This week's US economic data are expected to confirm the view of moderate growth with inflation held in check.  Consensus looks for the delayed September Retail Sales Report to post moderate gains after strong prints in August.  And, it expects the underlying September PPI to slow a bit from an already modest August.   September Durable Goods Orders are expected to slow to a 0.2-0.3% pace for Total and Ex Transportation, putting them back in line with the Q225 pace after very strong July-August prints.  The risk is that Orders will surprise on the upside.

Durable Goods Orders were particularly strong during the summer.  They show that business equipment demand picked up sharply (seen in Core Durable Goods, which are nondefense capital goods excluding civilian aircraft).  Business equipment spending looks like it could be a driving force for overall economic growth ahead.  In contrast, Defense Orders fell during the summer, which might have had to do with the September-end of the FY2025 federal budget.  If so, they should rebound now that the FY2026 budget has been approved.  Defense could be another positive catalyst for growth ahead, as orders catch up.

                                                                                      Orders

                                                                          ( average m/m percent change)       

                                                                     Jul-Aug        H125        2024

Durable Goods Ex Transportation                0.6                0.2            0.1

Core Durable Goods                                     0.6                0.2            0.1

Defense Capital Goods                                -4.3               2.7            2.6 

 Defense Ex Aircraft                                  -15.6              8.3             2.8                

Jobs, Inflation and Tariffs

The stock market may continue to churn until a view of the likely course of Fed monetary policy becomes clearer.  The absence of official US economic data as a result of the government shutdown has obscured the view, helping to explain the large swings in the market.  The first major US economic data release will be the September Employment Report on Thursday.  Unemployment Insurance Claims, though, may be more important.

Employment

The evidence regarding September Payrolls is mixed.  /1/ The ADP monthly estimate of a decline that month points to a weak Payroll print (see table below).   ADP and First-Print Private Payrolls moved in the same direction (speeding up or slowing down) each month since April.  /2/  But an improvement in Unemployment Claims suggests a speedup in September Payrolls.  Continuing Claims fell between the August and September Payroll Survey Weeks, suggesting a pickup in hiring.  They too have a good record predicting speedups and slowdowns in Payrolls -- better than ADP for Final-Print Payrolls.

The market reaction may be muted if ADP is right and September Payrolls are weak.  This is because the latest monthly ADP Estimate indicated a rebound in October.  Nonetheless, what should be important for the Fed is the trend in job growth.  Along with the latest bi-weekly 4-week moving average of -11k, the 3-month average of ADP suggests the trend is flattish -- and argues for a Fed rate cut. 

A speedup in September Payrolls, in contrast, would argue against a Fed rate cut at the December FOMC Meeting.  However, at this point it should be viewed as history.  The path of the jobs market over October and November is more important.  Unemployment Claims, particularly Continuing, would offer the best evidence.  The Fed will likely have up-to-date data on Initial and Continuing Claims in time for the December FOMC Meeting.  Unemployment Claims may be the easiest data to compile and release.  They are collected by state governments, who continued to do so while the federal government was closed. 

Unemployment Insurance Claims are the best measured, broadest and most up-to-date labor market data.  They are a universal count, unlike the Payroll data which are based on surveys, so there is no measurement error.  They are among the broadest measures because they cover the whole private economy.  (Federal government workers are covered by a separate unemployment insurance system, so are not included in Initial or Continuing Claims.)  

Initial Unemployment Claims -- which measures the number of people filing for Unemployment Insurance for the first time after being laid off -- were in a tight range around 225k during the first 9 months of the year.  They did not show any significant uptrend in layoffs.  In contrast, Continuing Claims -- which measures the number of people filing for Unemployment Insurance in the weeks after the first -- had ratcheted up from May through July, suggesting hiring had pulled back.  They began to trend down in August and reached a low of 1.926 Mn in mid September.  The swing from worsening to improving is consistent with other data suggesting the weakest point in the economy occurred in the middle of the summer, as discussed in last week's blog.  

 Inflation

A catch-up in the release of CPI data does not look likely according to news reports, since the government shutdown prevented BLS from canvassing prices during October.  This is unfortunate, because there's reason to think it would be a benign print.  Besides the possibility that Owners' Equivalent Rent would stay low as in September, seasonal factors work to hold down airfares.  Used Car Prices could be soft, as well.  These components could offset tariff-related price boosts in other components.  

 Tariffs

There is almost no question that tariffs reduce the US standard of living -- acting as a tax on consumers and directing resources to more costly production.  So, it is not surprising that voters voiced their displeasure in the recent elections.  (Tariffs would not impact the US standard of living if foreign exporters bore all of them by lowering their prices as an offset --  which was not the case.)  Trump recognizes the popular displeasure by raising the possibility of $2,000 payments to presumably lower-/middle-income people.   There is a theoretical justification for this kind of payment.  The impact on a consumer of a change in the price of a good or service can be de-composed into a substitution and income effect.  The substitution effect shows how the consumer will adjust purchases to the change in the relative price of the item.  The income effect shows the lost purchasing power from the price hike.  Trump's proposal could be viewed as an attempt to offset the income effect of the tariff-induced price hikes.   The substitution effect still would be in play.

 

                                         Private Payrolls (m/m change, 000s)   

                        ADP Estimate        First-Print BLS        Latest-Print BLS    Continuing Claims *        

    March               155                          209                            120

    April                   62                          167                            133                                14                            

    May                    37                          140                              69                               -74           

    Jun                    -33                            74                             -27                               -57                              

    Jul                    104                            83                               77                               18   

   Aug                     54                            38                                na                               -8                            

   Sep                    -32                            na                                na                               18 

   Oct                     42                             na                                na  

 * the inverted change in Continuing Claims between Payroll Survey Weeks, 000s

 

 

 

 

Market Stabilization

The stock market may stabilize this week, as the macroeconomic background may be improving and an end to the government shutdown remains a potential positive.  As for the monetary policy outlook, this week's Fed speeches are not likely to tilt the odds of a rate cut at the December FOMC Meeting one way or the other, as they most likely will stick to the positions taken at the last meeting in September.  So, uncertainty about a December rate cut should remain, particularly as the balance of risks may be shifting.

There is a lot of evidence that the economic weakness seen during the summer is over, which would reduce the downside risk to the labor market.  Besides the pickup in the ADP measures of job growth, most commodity price indices, such as CRB, have moved up from their August lows.   The indices could be responding to stronger economic activity.  It also may be telling that longer-term Treasury yields have been steady, contrary to the decline that would be associated with a weaker economy.  There could be further evidence of an improved labor market when ADP releases it's bi-weekly 4-week moving average on Tuesday.  The question is whether it will exceed the 14.25k in the latest report, adding to the more positive evidence regarding the labor market.  Or, will it weaken, reflecting the large layoff announcements highlighted by the Challenger Report, many or which are likely AI-related?  

What may be more important for the Fed would be a benign October CPI Report (assuming it will be released at some point), suggesting lower upside risks to the inflation outlook.  At this point, the evidence is mixed.  Anecdotal evidence suggests that businesses will begin to pass through the tariffs soon.  So, the Fed will likely be interested to see if the pass-through is significant enough to show up in the CPI.  However, private surveys suggest little change in price inflation in October.  Inflation Expectations, as measured in separate surveys by University of Michigan and New York Fed, are contained.  The Price component of the Mfg ISM slipped.  The Manheim Used Car Price Index fell.  And, the ADP measure of Pay Growth shows steady wage inflation.  If these survey results are correct, the next CPI Report (presuming it will be released) may be the trigger for a December rate cut.

The irony of Trump's tariff policy is that while it may have given the US a "stick" to use in foreign policy, it cut domestic support for the Republican Party by hurting the US consumer through higher prices -- particularly food prices.   The Democratic Party used the "affordability" argument to win some key elections last week -- even though their policy prescriptions may, in fact, worsen the economic situation.  And, Trump and his advisors appear to understand the political problem:  Although Trump disputed the "affordability" argument, he announced a Department of Justice anti-trust investigation into meat pricing.   It remains to be seen what the Supreme Court will decide regarding Trump's tariffs and what he may do in their place if the Court decides his actions were unconstitutional.  An end of the tariffs would lower the Fed's and market's inflation risks substantially.

 

 

 

Consolidation WIthin a Bullish Background?

The stock market may consolidate this week, as most earnings reports have been released and uncertainty over the next Fed policy move has increased.  However, a year-end rally cannot be ruled out, as there are still some potential positives near term including an end to the government shutdown and seasonal bullishness in November and December.  Moreover, even if the Fed does not cut rates at the December 9-10 FOMC Meeting, it plans to stop selling off its portfolio of long-dated securities, particularly mortgage-backeds, on December 1.  This action represents an easing in monetary policy.  

Although Fed Chair Powell did not promise another rate cut at the December 9-10 FOMC Meeting, he did not rule it out either.  There are two main reasons for the uncertainty.  First, in the absence of almost all official economic data, Powell said monetary policy is like driving in a fog -- when a prudent slowdown is often called for.  To be sure, information the Fed has suggests little change in the economic outlook from the one presented at the September FOMC Meeting, as described below.  And, the situation should improve if the government shutdown ends soon.  Second, there are mixed views among FOMC members on whether the funds rate is now above or below the neutral level.  The latter is unobservable, thereby allowing for disagreement.  Powell did say that if the Fed skips cutting rates in December, rate cuts could resume at some point afterwards.

There is a problem with Powell's arguments for skipping a rate cut at the December meeting.  He always states that policy is focused on the outlook, particularly since monetary policy impacts the economy with a lag.  Not knowing the current state of the economy because of the data blackout should not alter the outlook significantly, unless there has been a dramatic change.  The latter has not been the case, according to Powell.  So, the absence of government-supplied data should not affect monetary policy now, which presumably is based on the Fed's outlook.  Fed officials could easily stick with their rate forecasts in the September Central Tendency Forecasts, the majority of which calls for one more cut this year.

Powell, indeed, said economic conditions have not changed much since the September FOMC Meeting. He said that Real GDP Growth appears to be growing faster than the 1.6% H125 pace so far in H225 -- thanks to stronger consumption and AI investment.  Nevertheless, the labor market looks to be little changed.  State data on Unemployment Insurance Claims have been steady since the Meeting, despite the recent spate of large layoff announcements.  This suggests layoffs in the aggregate are not moving up.  Nonetheless, Powell observed that newly laid-off people are finding it hard to land a new job (consistent with the higher level of Continuing Claims that I highlighted in past blogs).  The most recent ADP measure of job growth over the prior 4 weeks suggests a modest pickup in October.  Consensus looks for this to be confirmed in the monthly ADP Estimate this week.   A pickup in job growth is not unreasonable to expect, if the Atlanta Fed model's estimate of 3.9% Q325 Real GDP Growth is right.  It would dampen market fears of recession.

Powell made one point that raises doubt about the correctness of the Fed's earlier view of rate cuts through year end.  He attributed most of the weak job growth to fewer immigrants and a decline in labor force participation, i.e, a labor supply issue.  Unless the lower participation rate reflects discouragement in the face of weak labor demand, these supply issues imply that slow economic growth is enough to keep the labor market at full employment.  In other words, easier monetary policy to boost growth would not be necessary.

Powell made some positive comments about inflation.  He said tariffs are largely behind the currently above-target inflation rate, with the y/y of the September PCE Deflator estimated at 2.8% for both Total and Core.  The Fed still thinks the tariffs' impact on the inflation rate likely will be gone after a few months, possibly by Spring (although not the impact on the price level).  Inflation should then move down to the Fed's 2% target.  Important as well, Powell said he expects housing-related inflation to continue to slow.  This benign longer-term inflation outlook suggests that the current high inflation prints should not stand in the way of easier monetary policy.

The Fed's decision to end its portfolio selling is a form of easier monetary policy.  It should help lower longer-term yields, particularly mortgage rates.  Powell said that after December 1, the Fed will buy short-term Treasury bills to offset maturing mortgage-backeds, keeping the Fed's balance sheet steady.  The latter's composition would shift to having a greater share of Treasuries.  Also, the duration of the Fed's holding would shorten, moving it closer to the duration of all outstanding Treasury securities.  These changes could flatten the Treasury yield curve without signaling an upcoming recession, which would be a positive for stocks.

 

Easier Fed Policy This Week

The stock market may continue to climb this week, helped by strong corporate earnings and easier Fed monetary policy.  The Fed is likely to cut another 25 BPs in the funds rate as well as end its bond sales.  Last week's softer-than-consensus September CPI provided more reason for the Fed to be comfortable with policy moving in this direction.  A potential meeting of Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Trump ahead of the latter's threat of an additional 100% tariff could be important for the stock market, as well.

The modest September CPI -- with Total up 0.3% m/m and the important Core up only 0.2% -- should encourage the Fed's belief that its 2% inflation target will be hit eventually.  Boosts from tariffs were still evident, but they did not dominate.  Most of the major Core components, specifically 9 of 15, had prices rising by 0.2% or less.  And, the important Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER)  slowed sharply to 0.1% from its 0.3% trend.  A continuation of this low trajectory would be a significant step toward the Fed's overall inflation goal.  Some private surveys say that rents are falling.  It isn't clear whether the rent declines seen in these surveys are behind the OER slowdown, since the CPI's measure of rents is lagged.  However, if the private surveys are right, they bode well for OER to stay low in future months.  The y/y for both Total and Core CPI was 3.0% in September.  Total has to average under 0.31% m/m during Q425 for the y/y to fall by December.  The Core CPI has to average under 0.25%.

Fed Chair Powell in a recent speech raised the likelihood that the Fed would end its balance sheet reduction program in the near term.  Although he was not specific when this would happen, the soft September CPI would seem to be enough of a reason to do so at this week's FOMC Meeting.  Such a move should be particularly helpful for the housing market, as mentioned in last week's blog.  To repeat, much of the Fed selling has been of mortgage-backed securities.  The spread between mortgage rates and Treasury yields, which has been historically wide, should narrow with the ending of this program.   Mortgage rates would fall by more than would longer-term Treasury yields. 

The other important event this week will be the possible meeting of Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea on October 30.  Even though Xi appears to have survived the internal political infighting at the Fourth Plenum, some analysts believe he has lost power -- possibly to more pro-Western factions -- within the government and armed forces.  Whatever the case, he appears to be open to a conciliatory approach to US-China trade issues, possibly as a result of the weakening economy and rising unemployment in China.  Pre-talk negotiations between the US and China are reported to have agreed upon a framework for the Trump-Xi meeting.