Wednesday, April 27, 2016

What Is Important in the April FOMC Statement

The most important change in the April FOMC Statement is the downshift in the Fed's view of US economic growth.  This suggests the Fed is no hurry to hike rates.

     a.  April Statement: "economic activity appears to have slowed."

     b.  March Statement: "economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace."

The April description of economic activity is accurate, as I have pointed out in earlier blogs.  It would seem to acknowledge that the "global economic and financial developments of recent months" mentioned in the March Statement could have begun to impact the US economic activity.   There could be other reasons, as well, for the slowdown in GDP Growth, so it is reasonable that the April Statement does not explicitly make a connection between global and US developments.

To be sure, the April Statement continued to mention further improvement in the labor market -- and placed it ahead of the economic slowdown comment.  This placement suggests the Fed is not yet willing to throw in the towel about the possibility of further rate hikes.  But, the labor market may very well soon begin to reflect the economic slowdown, as well -- as I highlighted in prior blogs.  So, even this element could downshift in upcoming Statements.






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