A Friendly FOMC Meeting?

The stock market should continue to recover this week, even if the Fed cuts the funds rate by only 25 BPs.  This is because in addition to the rate cut it is very possible the Fed will signal more monetary policy easing in the rest of the year.   Moreover, the revisions to the Central Tendency Forecasts should be market positive.  And, there is a reason to think that the Fed's estimate of longer-run economic growth is too low, although it will not likely be changed at this meeting.  Putting aside specifics,  since the purpose of the easing would be to sustain solid economic growth, this policy background is an important positive for stocks.  

The Fed's signal of future rate cuts would be in the Central Tendency Forecasts and "dot" plots.  The latest Forecasts, made in June, showed the funds rate being cut to 4.9-5.4% by Q424, compared to the current range of 5.25-5.5%.  The updates will likely move this forecast down to 4.5-4.75% -- implying another 50-75 BPs in cuts over the two remaining FOMC Meetings this year.   The June "dot" plot put the median forecast at just above 5.0%.  This, too, is likely to move down to under 5.0%.

Updates to the economic components of the Central Tendency Forecasts should be stock-market positive:

1.  The forecast for Real GDP is likely to be raised to around the current upper estimate of 2.3%, as the H124 actual pace is 2.2% and the Atlanta Fed model estimate of Q324 is 2.5%.  The June range is 1.9-2.3%. 

2.  The Unemployment Rate forecast may be raised a bit.  In June, the forecast was for the Rate to be 4.0-4.1% in Q424.  It was 4.2% in August.  An upward revision could reflect expectations of increased labor force participation rather than weaker economic growth.

3.  The inflation forecasts could be lowered.  The June forecasts are 2.5-2.9% for Total PCE Deflator and 2.8-3.0% for Core PCE Deflator.  In July, the y/y was 2.5% for Total and 2.6% for Core.  They will move down more if they print less than 0.16% m/m from August through December.

Although the 1.7-2.0% estimate of the longer-run trend in Real GDP Growth is not likely to be changed at this meeting, this possibility may become an important focus either in the markets or at the Fed.  With US Population Growth at 1.2% and Nonfarm Productivity possibly continuing to exceed 1.0%, the longer-run trend in GDP could be in the 2.0-2.5% range.  A rising Unemployment Rate while Real GDP Growth is in the 1.7-2.0% range would suggest a higher range for the longer-run GDP trend than now estimated by the Fed.  If the Fed recognizes this, officials are likely to be more comfortable, if not more aggressive, in cutting rates.

On the data front, it is noteworthy that both Initial and Continuing Claims remained below their July average in the latest week.  It is possible that labor market weakness has bottomed.  Consensus looks for modest increases in August Retail Sales, both Total and Ex Auto.  This would still indicate a solid consumer after Sales jumped in July.

 

 

A Fed-Friendly Employment Report

The stock market may try to stabilize this week, after it seemed to overreact to Friday's Fed-friendly August Employment.   The latter points to near-trend economic growth with little wage pressures, arguing for a measured 25 BP rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC Meeting (as well as keeping the door open for more cuts in Q424).   This macroeconomic/policy background remains positive for stocks.  

To be sure, some market participants are concerned that a 50 BP rate cut is needed.  Disappointment that the Employment Report did not give unequivocal support for this size cut may have been a factor behind Friday's sell-off.  There could be disappointment again this week, since consensus expectations for August inflation data, if correct, may not be soft enough to satisfy market participants hoping for a 50 BP rate cut.  However, the underlying inflation data should be negligible and not be a problem for the Fed or markets.

The August Employment Report contained an almost ideal set of data from the Fed's perspective:

1.  The 3-month average of Payrolls is 116k m/m -- close to the +125k m/m pace that is consistent with a steady Unemployment Rate.  The +142k increase in August was likely in part a rebound from a negative weather impact in July.  The July-August average (+116k) about equals the June pace (+118k).

 2. With the Nonfarm Workweek recovering, Total Hours Worked rose to a level that is 0.8% (annualized) above the Q224 average -- supporting estimates of about 2.0% Real GDP Growth (taking account of productivity).

3.  The dip in the Unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.3% resulted from Civilian Employment outpacing Labor Force.  Both the Labor Force Participation Rate and Employment-Population Ratio were steady.  This is not a sign of a softening labor market.  To be sure, the broader U-6 Rate edged up, apparently because of an increase in  people working part time for economic reasons.  All other broad measures of unemployment edged down.

4. The speedup in Average Hourly Earnings to 0.4% m/m could be just an offset to the low 0.2% in July -- in other words, just volatility.  The latest 3-month average is a trend 0.3% m/m.  Last week's revision to Q224 Productivity/Labor Costs had good news for the inflation outlook.  Compensation/Hour -- the broadest measure of labor costs -- slowed to 3.0% (q/q, saar) from 4.2% in Q124.  The y/y fell to 3.1% from 3.8%.

This week's inflation reports are expected to be moderate -- but perhaps not low enough for those hoping for  50 BP rate cut.  Consensus looks for +0.2% m/m for both Total and Core CPI in August, with the risk of a lower print for Total.  The y/y should fall for Total but be steady for Core.  Nevertheless, inflation should be essentially a non-issue.  This is because inflation outside housing rent is flat.  Although some prices climb, others fall -- balancing out.   And, the bulk of the measured rent is imputed, not actually paid.

The more interesting report may be the weekly Unemployment Claims data.  Both Initial and Continuing fell in the prior week, but this could have resulted from Labor Day being in the week.  This holiday effect could reverse in this week's report, boosting Claims.  If it does, the two weeks' data should be averaged and compared to the July averages (232k Initial, 1.853 Mn Continuing).  If it does not, it would suggest that labor market weakness may have bottomed.

Stocks Helped By This Week's Key Data?

The stock market should be helped by this week's key US economic data, which are expected to recover to some extent from the prior month's prints that had sparked fears of recession.  Bad weather may have contributed to the earlier weakness.  Consensus prints would be strong enough to suggest no more than a 25BP rate cut at the September 17-18 FOMC Meeting. 

Consensus expects a rebound in the August Mfg ISM to 47.8 in August from 46.8 in July.  Although in the right direction, it would continue to indicate sluggish manufacturing as both remain below the 48.8 Q224 average.  In contrast, consensus expects the Services ISM to edge up to  51.5 in August from 51.4 in July.  The latter did not seem to be impacted much by bad weather in July and both the August consensus and July actual are above the 50.7 Q224 average.  The stock market should be buoyed by this evidence of an improving economy outside manufacturing.

Consensus sees the August Employment Report recovering modestly from the weak July Jobs Report.  Nonfarm Payrolls are seen rising 163k m/m after +114k in July.  Both are below the 168k m/m Q224 average.  The Nonfarm Average Workweek also is expected to recover a bit, to a trend 34.3 Hours from 34.2 Hours in July.  Total Hours Worked should rise by enough to put them above the Q224 average.

Consensus also expects the Unemployment Rate to edge down to 4.2% from 4.3%, remaining well above the 3.6% Q224 average.  Fed Chair Powell already pointed out that the increase in the Rate was largely a result of stronger labor force growth.  So, the high Unemployment Rate may be more a signal of greater capacity in the economy to grow, rather than a sharp weakening in the labor market.  Average Hourly Earnings are seen returning to their 0.3% m/m trend from 0.2% in July.  The y/y still would rise to 3.7% from 3.6% in July, but stay below the 3.9% Q224 average.  The Unemployment Claims are mixed for August, with lower Initial Claims signalling fewer layoffs, but a speedup in Continuing Claims suggesting soft hiring.  

Earlier in the week, consensus expects the July JOLTS data to confirm a softer labor market with a dip in Job Openings.  This could be impacted by bad weather, however, and conceivably tick up as the latter may have prevented job openings from being filled.  An uptick should be ignored for this reason.

Last week's Personal Income Report showed a strong consumer and moderate inflation, arguing for a 25 BP cut at the September FOMC Meeting.  The consumer began Q324 on a strong note, with Real Consumption 3.0% (annualized) above the Q224 average.  And, the 2.5-2.6% y/y for Total and Core PCE Deflator are not far above the Fed's 2.0% target, allowing the Fed to act to sustain economic growth.  

The Atlanta Fed model's estimate of Q324 Real GDP Growth was revised up to 2.5% from 2.0% as a result of these and other recent data.  This growth rate, if it holds up as more data come in, would be slower than the 3.0% Q224 pace but above the Fed's 1.7-2.0% estimate of longer-run growth.  It  argues against recession and for only a gradual pace of policy easing, the latter meant to ensure a continuation of moderate economic growth.

Fed Easing on Track, Fiscal Policy An Issue?

The Fed's implicit promise to ease monetary policy in order to sustain economic growth -- as long as inflation remains muted -- stands as a strong positive for the stock market.  However, some profit-taking could weigh on the market this week after the market rallied ahead of and on Fed Chair Powell's speech in which he finally confirmed a September rate cut -- a "buy the rumor sell the fact" pattern.  The market will probably now focus on whether and by how much the Fed will cut rates after the September FOMC meeting.  With the Fed now emphasizing risks to economic growth, real-side economic data should become more important than inflation data.  

Inflation data are still important, nonetheless, as they need to confirm their downtrend to satisfy the Fed and markets.  The consensus expectation of 0.2% for both Total and Core July PCE Deflator, due on Friday, should be acceptable and taken in stride.  Stocks would likely rally on a smaller increase.  The latter can't be ruled out.

The Fed's policy stance should restrain any downside risk stemming from policies of a new Administration, whether it be Democratic or Republican.  Many of the proposals relate to re-distribution rather than economic growth.  So, they may have little significance for monetary policy.  However, some policy proposals could be significant for the Fed at some point.

The Democratic proposal to hike the corporate tax rate may have macroeconomic effects.  If the tax reduces profits, it could dampen business investment as some projects become unprofitable.  If the tax is passed through to prices, there would be a temporary boost to inflation that would cut consumer purchasing power.  If the tax is pushed down to labor, resulting in lower-than-otherwise wages, consumer purchasing power would be hurt, too.  However, if, as theory says would happen, workers in non-corporate businesses also receive lower-than-otherwise wages, these companies could pass through the lower labor costs to prices, offsetting at least to some extent the hit to purchasing power from the tax.

Harris' plan to extend Biden's cap on drug prices would seem to help hold down inflation.  However, it may prompt pharmaceutical companies to raise prices on other drugs.  Also, it could lead to shortages and higher prices through a black market for the capped drugs. 

The Republican proposal to hike tariffs should boost prices, at least initially.  In principle, however, they should be offset by a stronger dollar so the boost may be less than expected.  Whether tariffs result in only a one-time increase in prices or feeds into a sustained increase in inflation may depend on whether wage rates move up in response.  This won't be seen immediately, but could make Fed policymakers cautious about the inflation outlook.

Trump's wish to participate in Fed rate decisions is not good.  Participation by a president risks preventing the Fed from tightening to prevent inflation, a politically unpopular policy.  This risk could undermine global confidence in the dollar, causing the latter to fall in the FX market.  This would be inflationary. Between a loss of confidence in the Fed's inflation-fighting ability and a weaker dollar, inflationary expectations would rise, resulting in a steeper Treasury yield curve (higher long-term yields) -- a negative for economic growth.

Both parties appear to want to increase the Child Care Credit.  This would boost consumer spending.  And, unless it leads to a significant increase in labor force participation, would need to be "crowded out" either by market moves or Fed policy if the economy is close to full employment.

Dovish Speech At Jackson Hole?

The stock market should continue to be buoyed this week by expectations of a dovish speech by Fed Chair Powell at the Jackson Hole conference on August 24-26.  He is likely to acknowledge progress against inflation while economic growth has remained solid.  He may indicate that the Fed will soon be ready to pull back gradually from a restrictive monetary policy stance in order to sustain this growth, given that policy changes often are mentioned at this conference.

Last week's US economic data supports a gradual relaxation of monetary policy.  While the inflation data were good, they were not altogether soft.  The real-side data were mixed, but overall consistent with another quarter of growth.

Stocks rallied sharply on the low July PPI headlines of +0.1% m/m Total and 0.0% Core.  But, these were held down by the volatile, if not questionable, Trade Services component.  Core Ex Trade Services rose 0.3%, matching its average over the first half of the year.  It suggests steady inflation ahead.  

Stocks paid less attention to the July CPI, which came in as expected at 0.2% m/m for both Total and Core.   The measure favored by Powell -- Core Less Shelter -- was even better at 0.0% for the third month in a row.  However, Shelter sped up, with Primary Rent rising  0.5% after 0.3% in June and Owners' Equivalent Rent at 0.4% after 0.3%.  Although the speedups could be just offsets to the below-trend June prints, even an average of the two months would argue against expecting rent to trend down.  A steady trend in the rent component of the CPI could make it difficult for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target.

Stocks rallied again on strong July Retail Sales.  There was little pullback from the June jump in sales, setting up the possibility of a speedup in consumer spending in Q324.  The July level of Ex Auto/Ex Gasoline Retail Sales is 4.0% (annualized) above the Q224 average.  This compares with a 2.9% q/q (saar) pace in Q224.  Also, the Unemployment Claims data are leaning to a stronger labor market.  Initial Claims fell below the July average in the past two weeks.  Although Friday's release of July Housing Starts showed a large m/m drop, it seems to be largely weather related.  The bulk of the drop was in the South, which had been hit by large storms.

The Atlanta Fed model's projection of Q324 Real GDP Growth is now 2.0% (q/q, saar).  This could change as more data come in.  As it stands, it is in line with the Fed's estimate of the longer-term trend in the economy.  And, from the Fed's perspective, a highly desirable pace that should allow for some easing in monetary policy.

 

 

Stock Market Helped By US Economic Data This Week?

The stock market could be helped by this week's US economic data, which should point to moderate economic growth and inflation -- either in the headlines or once volatility is smoothed out.  Consensus is likely to coalesce around a "measured" pace of 25 BP rate cuts by the Fed beginning in September.  Fed Chair Powell could discuss such an approach at the Jackson Hole Conference (August 24-26).  Anticipation of his speech could help lift stocks this week.

Normal volatility or one-off events, like bad weather, could look like recession when the economy is growing near trend.  The 1.7-2.0% estimate of longer-run growth estimated by the Fed is close enough to zero to make large negative shocks look as if the economy is moving into recession.  More than one month's reports are needed to confirm the latter for this reason.  

Similar considerations apply to inflation data, for which volatility could mask the underlying pace.  Volatility is a risk in this week's July CPI.  The consensus estimate of +0.2% m/m for Total and Core would be favorable prints, nudging down the y/y by 0.1% pt for each.  However, there is a risk of a 0.3% Core from a rebound in Airfares.  Seasonal factors look to offset a large drop in airfares in July.  Their drop in June suggests airlines may have pulled ahead this seasonal weakness, which helped hold down Core CPI to 0.1% that month.  If so, airfares could rebound in July, possibly resulting in a 0.3% Core.  The market will likely discount an above-consensus Core CPI print if this is the reason.  Averaging the two months would give the right measure of underlying core inflation.  And, a 0.2% average would be Fed and market friendly.

Taking account of volatility may be important to understand the July Retail Sales Report.  Consensus looks for a slight increases of 0.1% m/m in Ex Auto Sales.  This follows +0.4% in June.  The market may view a small increase as a sign of weakening consumer.   But, this is not necessarily so.  More importantly, Ex Auto/Ex Gasoline Sales jumped 0.8% in June.  So, a modest increase or even a decline in July would be a typical print after a large gain.  It still would point to decent consumption growth in Q324.  

Curiously, the Atlanta Fed model's latest projection is for a strong 2.9% (q/q, saar) in Q324 Real GDP Growth, despite all the market angst about recession.  The model estimate can change as more data come in.  And, the 3.0% estimate for Q324 Consumer Spending seems a little high.  However, at this point, the model translates the latest data into another quarter of above-trend growth.

A Potential Recession, But More Aggressive Fed?

The stock market may remain sensitive to evidence of a potential recession this week, after the Mfg ISM and Employment Reports surprised on the weak side.  There are few data releases this week, but a counter-consensus decline in the July Non-Mfg ISM could hurt the market.  The market may stay under stress until the Fed gives a clear signal that it will ease aggressively.  Fed Chair Powell will have such opportunity at the Jackson Hole Conference on August 24-26.  He could open the door for multiple or large rate cuts ahead.

The July Employment Report raised the risk of recession, but did not mean one is at hand.  In either case, the Report contained a number of elements that could encourage the Fed to ease more often than just in September or start with a 50 BP rather than 25 BP cut without fear of stoking inflation.  Whether the Fed chooses to begin with a 50 BP rate cut could depend on what prints in the August Employment Report, due September 6.  It's too soon to estimate, but a speedup is conceivable to the extent bad weather temporarily hurt job growth in July.

Although the market viewed the below-consensus +114k m/m increase in July Payrolls to be particularly weak, the truth is it is consistent with trend labor force growth based on a steady Participation Rate.  The Fed is probably happy with this pace of job growth, seeing it not recessionary but sustainable in the long run.

Indeed, the composition of the m/m change in Nonfarm Payrolls raises the possibility that weak demand was not the main reason for the modest overall increase.  Most of the weakness was outside of cyclical sectors -- instead, in service-producing sectors, such as professional and business services (particularly accounting and administrative), finance and insurance, and private education.  Cost cutting and maybe the substitution of AI for workers may have been behind the job cuts.  If so, productivity (and earnings) will likely improve.

A decline in Total Hours Worked (THW), thanks to a lower Nonfarm Workweek (possibly weather related), suggests Real GDP Growth should be under the long-term trend 2.0% in Q324.  THW in July are 0.5% (annualized) below the Q224 average.  Even if THW don't bounce back in August and September, productivity growth could keep GDP Growth positive.  So, the data don't necessarily mean a recession is imminent.

The 0.2% pt jump in the Unemployment Rate to 4.3% is consistent with sub-trend economic growth if not recession.  The jump, however, largely resulted from an increase in the Labor Force Participation Rate.  The Participation Rate rose in both June and July after dropping in May, and the July level is back to that seen in the Spring.  The 3-month swing could be just volatility, but the recovery in the Participation Rate should assuage any concern Fed officials might have had about the potential growth of the economy.  And, the higher level of the Unemployment Rate means the Fed has less to fear of stoking inflation by stimulating the economy.

The below-trend 0.2% m/m increase in Average Hourly Earnings supports Powell's comment, made at the post-FOMC Meeting news conference, that the labor market is not a significant source of inflation pressures.   Eight of thirteen sectors posted sub-0.3% increases, 0.3% being the recent trend.  The low pace needs to be seen in coming months, as well, to conclude that trend in wage inflation has ratcheted down.

Consensus looks for a rebound in the Non-Mfg ISM to 51.0 in July from 48.8 in June.  Perhaps, consensus is based on the idea that the survey would catch up to the bounce-back in Retail Sales in June.  In contrast, bad weather could depress it.  Also, the decline in the July Mfg ISM suggests downside risk.  However, the m/m correlation between the Non-Mfg ISM and Mfg ISM is not solid.  From the most recent experience, both moved in the same direction in 5 of 6 months in H124, suggesting a counter-consensus decline in the Non-Mfg ISM.  They did not track as well last year, though.  They moved in the same direction in only 7 of 12 months in 2023.  So, while the decline in the July Mfg ISM suggests downside risk to the consensus estimate, it is not necessarily reliable.